yield curve watch

June 30, 2019 was a milestone, raising concerns that an economic downturn is coming.

What happened? The yield curve remained inverted for 3 months of an entire quarter. For 50 years, this has been a signal that the economy is  heading into recession in the next 9 to 18 months.


Chart found is this post: “Economic Policy Uncertainty and Recession Probability – July 2019 Update”

Overall, things have gotten worse since January 2019 as the yield curve inverted, raising recession odds for the next 6 to 12 months.

Beware of conflicting forecasts.

Good economic news is in the background this time. The stock market is going strong. The S&P 500 is up 17% for the year. Low unemployment. Could consumers put on the brakes and withhold spending? The next 3 months will tell us more.

Source for this post: Yield Curve Inversion

Published by mikebertelsen

Global market, trade, and financial news. I keep up to date with what I assess is important.

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